Early Childhood Education in Brazil: 2026 Outlook
Fewer children, higher demands. We crossed seven public INEP, IBGE and FNDE datasets with AI models to measure the forces that will reshape the sector through 2030.
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- Author
- André Mosko
- CTO at OSLO.
- In collaboration with
- Format
- 57 pages · PDF (in Portuguese)
A preview of the study
Six numbers that change the plan.
- −29%Birth rate
Brazil recorded 2.42 million births in 2024, the lowest figure since 2003.
- 2025Turning point
Early childhood enrolment stopped growing. In private schools, it fell by 2.5% and 5.9%.
- +961 milPlaces to the target
Extra nursery enrolments needed by 2036 to reach the new national plan's 60% target.
- 10,5%School exits
Schools with up to 50 pupils leave early childhood education at this rate every year.
- −36%Teacher training
Teaching graduates fell from 165,600 in 2021 to 105,400 in 2024.
- ×4Inclusion
The share of special-needs children in early childhood education quadrupled in five years.
Who it's for
Written for decision makers.
- 01
School leaders
To tell structural trends from passing difficulties and plan enrolment, staff and revenue.
- 02
Education, technology and investment
A measure of the market's size and direction, with three tuition scenarios for 2030.
- 03
Policymakers and press
The gap to the new national nursery target, state by state, and what closing it takes.
Contents
11 chapters.
- 01The curve has already turned
- 02The size of the next generation
- 03Who is in school and who is not yet
- 04Inside the private market
- 05Why some schools close
- 06Where demand is and who pays
- 07Three scenarios for 2030
- 08Who will teach
- 09Inclusion: a more diverse classroom
- 10What to do with these numbers
- 11Profiles of eight state capitals